Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Obama/Romney Tied In Potential Matchup

This is a few days old, but I forgot to post it. Sorry, my bad. Anyways, here goes the good news for the GOP from Rasmussen:

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Obama and possible Republican nominee Mitt Romney would be all tied up at 45% each, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

This is especially good considering Romney has emerged as the frontrunner (assuming David Petraeus and Condi Rice stay above the fray, as expected). All of this, the frontrunner status and the running neck-and-neck with Obama, have to do with the economy. As long as the economy is struggling and people worry about the deficit and taxes, Romney's CEO "run the government like a business" appeal will be potent. This is especially true now that he has quit the ridiculous attempt to paint himself as an arch-conservative party leader. He is who he is, and like it or not, that is the Republican's best chance (right now) to take back the White House.

Other interesting notes from the survey:

The president, seeking a second four-year term, beats another potential GOP rival, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, by six points – 48% to 42%.

With a margin-of-error of 3%, that is much closer than she has ever run before. At first glance, it would appear that she would have a serious chance. However, if I was a betting man, I would say that her poll numbers will never go higher. The people who don't like her are almost certainly not going to budge, and now that she has left public office, it seems unlikely she will have the platform to swing the very small minority of independents who would be undecided. President Obama does.

Finally, it is very important that she doesn't try to start any third-party bologna:

If Romney secured the GOP nomination and Palin chose to run as an independent candidate, Obama would win the resulting three-way race with 44% of the vote. Romney is the choice of 33% of the voters under that scenario, with Palin a distant third with 16% support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

She pulls almost entirely from Republicans, moving only 1% of would-be Obama voters into the "undecided" column (which was 3% in a 1-on-1 race) while taking 12% away from Romney (over a quarter of his support). There is no way should could come up with the funds to be anything more than a Ross Perot in 1992 electorally, and makes a Romney win very, very hard since all her support comes from the right.

Source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2012/2012_match_ups_obama_romney_tied_at_45_obama_48_palin_42

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