Unions Approval/Disapproval Worst In History of Gallup Poll

48 Approve/45 Disapprove

Also, for first time majority of the public understands that unions hurt economy as a whole.

Read more here.

Majority Believe War In Afghanistan Wasn't Worth It

Scary numbers from ABC News/Washington Post Poll. For the first time ever, a majority of Americans believe the War in Afghanistan was not worth fighting. Not only that, but a 45% plurality believe we should begin reducing troop levels immediately (the opposite of what is needed according to virtually every foreign policy/military expert)!

We've said this before and we'll say it again: Mr. President, this is where you need to be spending political capital. You have always been a strong supporter of this very necessary war, and with all the domestic problems, you are risking the possibility that there will be no support from the left remaining to do what needs to be done in Southwest Asia.

Dems Prepared To Stuff Health Care Down Our Throats

They've got 60; they're now ready to try to use it, according to Politico and Mercury News, among others.

Of course, they blame this on the Republicans, because in the Democrats world, only reform that involves government expansion is true reform, and thus Republicans, who are holding out to only support something they believe in, don't support reform.

It is still unlikely that they will be able to get a public option out of the Senate, as it no longer has popular support (44 for, 47 against, according to the new CBS News poll that continues to show a steady downward trend for the idea) and moderate-to-conservative Dems (Landreiu, Nelson, Warner, Begich, Lincoln, Bayh, etc.) probably wouldn't be able to bring themselves to support it.

The scariest possibility is that the Dems may attempt to use Budget Reconciliation rules, which would only require 50 votes and would allow them to ignore up to 10 moderates, even though those rules are meant only for direct budget-related measures (Robert Byrd, a diehard liberal, has said he would oppose this bill, if they attempted to pass it in this fashion, out of precedent). It would be a decleration of war on Republicans and could be very costly in 2010, but might get the job done. As Republican Punk has said in the past, once a public option is in, there is no getting rid of it. It is an entitlement and people don't vote away entitlements (Welfare being the one exception, and that required a perfect storm even though it only affected a small minority of the population).

We'll keep you updated as news leaks on what a Republican-less reform package out of the Senate would look like.

New Poll Confirms America As Center-Right Country

Self-identified conservatives outnumber self-identified liberals in all 50 states of the union, according to the Gallup Poll.

At the same time, more Americans nationwide are saying this year that they are conservative than have made that claim in any of the last four years.

In 2009, 40% percent of respondents in Gallup surveys that have interviewed more than 160,000 Americans have said that they are either “conservative” (31%) or “very conservative” (9%). That is the highest percentage in any year since 2004.

Only 21% have told Gallup they are liberal, including 16% who say they are “liberal” and 5% who say they are “very liberal.”

Thirty-five percent of Americans say they are moderate.

Don't get us wrong. Democrats hold a significant party-affiliation edge. However, America is still center-right and a Democratic majority relies on a number of moderate-to-conservative members, as that party has a much wider base at the ground level thanks to alliances that date back to the New Deal (blue collar workers, big business, etc.).

Source: http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/52602

Not Specter's Week

According to the August 11 automated survey of 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters, Toomey leads Specter by 48-36 percent, with 12 percent undecided. That's a pretty notable flip from Rasmussen's June survey, which found Specter with a 50-39 percent advantage.

Source: http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0809/Specters_week.html

Liberal/Media Slanders Against Health Care Protestors Not Working

A new USA Today/Gallup poll reaffirms this blog's continued faith in the American public to see through the Pelosi/Obama/MSNBC attacks on health care protesters as unamerican.

"From what you know or have read, have these town hall meeting protests against the proposed bills made you more sympathetic to the protestors' views, do the protests not make any difference to you either way, or have the protests made you less sympathetic to the protestors' views?" Options rotated

More Sympathetic No Difference Less Sympathetic Unsure
% % % % 8/11/09
34 36 21 10

"From what you know and have read, do you think each of the following is a major factor, a minor factor, or not a factor in why the protests against health care bills are taking place at these town hall meetings? How about [see below]?"

Major Factor Minor Factor Not a Factor Unsure
% % % %
"Concern about the health care bills that average citizens had well before the meetings took place"
8/11/09
57 24 13 6

"Recent efforts by political activists to create organized opposition to the health care bills"
8/11/09
48 27 18 8

As you can see, of the people who are taking these protests into account, significantly more are growing MORE sympathetic rather than less to the protestors. In addition, people recognize that genuine anger plays a bigger role than political groups in getting these groups out, despite the media's best attempts to paint it otherwise.

There is room for improvement though, as this poll also reaffirm's Republican Punk's views on how these could be properly run:

"Generally speaking, do you consider each of the following actions at town hall meetings to be an example of democracy in action or an example of abuse of democracy? How about [see below]?" Options rotated

Democracy In Action Abuse of Democracy Unsure
% % %

"Individuals making angry attacks against a health care bill and what it might do"
8/11/09
51 41 8

"Booing when members of Congress make statements that the opponents disagree with"
8/11/09
44 47 9

"Shouting down supporters when they speak in favor of a health care bill"
8/11/09
33 59 8

Basically, being angry at the bill and the congressperson if they support it...yes! But be respectful. We kind of wish that was common sense, but what can you do. Let's let the poll numbers reaffirm it.

Source: Polling Report

Dutch Prefer Porcelain Lover To A Real One

Sex might be fun, but the Dutch don't find it as fun as a pleasant trip to the bathroom, if survey results reported Thursday by the ANP news agency are to be believed. According to the poll of 1,000 adults, 88 per cent listed a visit to the bathroom as something "they enjoy the most," making it the most popular activity chosen, reported ANP. Only 21 per cent did the same for sex.

ANP described the survey as "representative." It was conducted by the Intomart GfK institute for the popular scientific magazine Quest.

Another reason to be proud to be an American.

Source: http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/281273,sex-lags-behind-bathroom-visits-in-popularity-dutch-survey.html

Obama At Negative Approval In Rasmussen Poll

Overall, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That’s the lowest level of total approval yet recorded. The President’s ratings first fell below 50% just a few weeks ago on July 25. Fifty-two percent (52%) now disapprove.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 29% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-seven percent (37%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -8.

(Republican Punk Note: Presidential Approval is difference between those strongly approving and those strongly disapproving, just in case you didn't notice!)

Source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Democrats Are Just As Delusional As Republicans

It's interesting how numbers like this got no play, but the media really loves the Birther controversy...huh, wonder why?

But before liberals begin to smirk, here's a poll from 2007, in which 35 percent of Democrats said that President Bush knew in advance about the 9/11 attacks, and 26 percent were not sure.

So if 58 percent of Republicans are living in a delusional fantasy world because they are out of power, then 61 percent of Democrats were doing the same thing until just recently (perhaps they still are). It's a clean, apples-to-apples comparison with a clear lesson: People get a bit kooky when they're out of power, Democrats about 3 points kookier -- which is probably within the margin of error.

Source: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Birthers-and-Truthers-and-Mike-Stark-oh-my-52222302.html

Another Reason Chris Christie Is The Kind Of Candidate Republicans Need

Christie leads Corzine among union households by 18 points, 48 to 30 percent. Talk about losing the Democratic base ...

New Jersey will not only be a good sign for how 2010 will go for Republicans, but it hopefully will help inspire the RGA, RCCC, and RSCC on how to pick candidates for their locations. It is important to note that Christie does this without giving up his fiscally conservative views.

Source: The Scorecard

Americans Still Not Willing To Make Choices

Since the stimulus package, Americans have seemed to understand that it is better to ride out a recession than to pour out what little is left in the federal purse. Unfortunately, they continue to refuse to accept, to fix the hole Presidents Bubama (as in, Bush & Obama) have torn in the budget, that they will have to take some combination of spending cuts and tax raises.

A new CBS News/New York Times poll shows 53%-31% refusing to take cuts in services (that number increases to 42% if you let them only cut "a few things"), with 56%-41% opposing tax hikes.

The good news, politically, is that people are (slightly) less willing to accept an increase in taxes than they are to letting go of some domestic/economic aid. That will help Republicans in 2010, and especially 2012, when the President is forced to make some tough choices.

Unfortunately, this crisis is not about politics. It is about an American government that is threatening to lose all sense of fiscal reality and fall into a debt trap that would ensnare every citizen, and probably the entire world. The next Republican leader will hopefully be the one who can combine conservative austerity measures with the Roosevelt-Kennedy skill at rallying the country behind a necessary cause. And he is probably going to have to raise taxes too. It is impossible to know who that is (David Petraeus, if he chose to enter politics, comes to mind), but for the sake of everyone, pray they're out there.

What Republicans Need to Convince People Of To Win On Health Care

Polls consistently show Republican talking points winning on major issues related to health care. For example, majorities believe that under the Democrat plan their health care costs are going to rise, they will have less freedom in choosing their doctor, they will be in danger of losing their current plan (which they like a lot), the deficit will explode even more than it already has, and the system will become even more complex. Additionally, the country is evenly split on whether President Obama is doing a good job on the issue.

Despite all of this, majorities still trust the President and the Democrats more than the Republicans to fix health care. Why is this?

The key number could be this: a majority of Americans believe the President is trying to be bi-partisan and the Republicans are not. While we should continue to fight the battle of policy as the Democrats plan is a huge step in the wrong direction, this is the number we need to turn around. Anyone following the plan knows that President Obama's idea of bipartisanship is no different than the one Bush had: write a plan and tell the other party they need to agree or accuse them of "stonewalling." Meanwhile, the Republicans in the Senate are working closely with Max Baucus and his truly bipartisan team developing a plan everyone can agree with.

People are beginning to catch onto Obama's arrogance. It is the reason his personal favorabilities are finally falling and have actually caught up with his steadily decreasing job approval scores. This is what Republicans need to make the public aware of: we realize we're not in the majority, it was the will of the people, but the White House only wants those of us who agree with them; they don't want our input. But we'll keep trying to get the American people the best plan possible.

Once people believe it, we'll have the moral upperhand, which is necessary to allow the GOP, typically the party of the Mind, to acquire the claim to the heart as well. And the heart is the key to health care.

See Polls Here: http://www.pollingreport.com/health.htm

NPR Poll Shows Republicans Winning In General 2010 Midterms!

By 1%, meaning statistically the two parties are running even, but still big news!


"I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?"

Democrat Republican Other (vol.) Unsure Refused
7/22-26/09

42 43 3 10 2

Source: http://www.pollingreport.com/2010.htm

Scary Numbers Concerning Afghanistan

From the neew AP-GFK poll:

"Do you favor or oppose the war in Afghanistan?"

Favor Oppose Unsure Refused
44 53 3 1

President Obama needs to get on the bully pulpit on this, because we are not fighting a war of choice here. If Afghanistan falls, Pakistan falls, and that is as close to a worst case scenario there is.

Source: Polling Report

Obama/Romney Tied In Potential Matchup

This is a few days old, but I forgot to post it. Sorry, my bad. Anyways, here goes the good news for the GOP from Rasmussen:

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Obama and possible Republican nominee Mitt Romney would be all tied up at 45% each, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

This is especially good considering Romney has emerged as the frontrunner (assuming David Petraeus and Condi Rice stay above the fray, as expected). All of this, the frontrunner status and the running neck-and-neck with Obama, have to do with the economy. As long as the economy is struggling and people worry about the deficit and taxes, Romney's CEO "run the government like a business" appeal will be potent. This is especially true now that he has quit the ridiculous attempt to paint himself as an arch-conservative party leader. He is who he is, and like it or not, that is the Republican's best chance (right now) to take back the White House.

Other interesting notes from the survey:

The president, seeking a second four-year term, beats another potential GOP rival, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, by six points – 48% to 42%.

With a margin-of-error of 3%, that is much closer than she has ever run before. At first glance, it would appear that she would have a serious chance. However, if I was a betting man, I would say that her poll numbers will never go higher. The people who don't like her are almost certainly not going to budge, and now that she has left public office, it seems unlikely she will have the platform to swing the very small minority of independents who would be undecided. President Obama does.

Finally, it is very important that she doesn't try to start any third-party bologna:

If Romney secured the GOP nomination and Palin chose to run as an independent candidate, Obama would win the resulting three-way race with 44% of the vote. Romney is the choice of 33% of the voters under that scenario, with Palin a distant third with 16% support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

She pulls almost entirely from Republicans, moving only 1% of would-be Obama voters into the "undecided" column (which was 3% in a 1-on-1 race) while taking 12% away from Romney (over a quarter of his support). There is no way should could come up with the funds to be anything more than a Ross Perot in 1992 electorally, and makes a Romney win very, very hard since all her support comes from the right.

Source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2012/2012_match_ups_obama_romney_tied_at_45_obama_48_palin_42

T-Paw Becoming More and More Popular

In his own state...but still, it's a REALLY blue state that just elected Al Franken.

That a boy, Paw!

Very favorably: 28%
Somewhat favorably: 27%
Somewhat unfavorable: 15%
Very unfavorable: 28%
(Courtesy: Public Polling)

Hat Tip: GOP 12

60+% of the Country Oppose Stimulus; 60+% Support Stimulus

A new ABC/Washington Post poll shows that polling depends entirely on how you ask the question:

"Would you support or oppose additional federal spending above the 787 billion dollars already set aside to try to stimulate the economy? ... Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?"

StronglySupport SomewhatSupport SomewhatOppose StronglyOppose Unsure
18 17 18 43 3

"Would you support or oppose new federal spending of about 800 billion dollars on tax cuts, construction projects, energy, education, and health care to try to stimulate the economy? ... Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?"

StronglySupport SomewhatSupport SomewhatOppose StronglyOppose Unsure
43 27 9 17 3

This means, despite impressive numbers showing people strongly oppose a general second stimulus and do not want to add to the deficit (see previous polls), Republican hopes that they could regain power simply on the deficit alone were misplaced. Any opposition to stimulus needs to be three-tiered:

1. The massive deficit (obviously)
2. The fact that the previous stimulus did not work and any new one would be ineffective as well
3. The particulars of the package must be exposed as not worth it...more so than the last package where Republicans focused on things like birth control, which, while it shouldn't have been in there, was only a small piece.

Source: Polling Report

Obama Within Margin of Error With "Someone Else"

...In looking ahead to 2012, the Poll finds that 42% of voters say they would vote to re-elect President Obama, while 39% say they would vote for someone else. (Note: MoE was 3.5)

Source: http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/

Update: Left this out from the post. Obama's approval ratings are now below 50% with independents, males, and rural voters, all of which decreased by 15 percentage points. This means that these groups seem to be driving his slowly sliding approval ratings single-handedly. Expect the President to abate the speeches about community colleges and public plans, and increase the amount he talks about farming, self-reliance, and improving the efficiency of government.

Issue Numbers Good for Republicans to Keep Hammering Debt Message

Now that Congressional Republicans have rediscovered their fiscal souls and oppose deficit spending again after 8 years of letting the Bush administration run rough-shod all over them, a variety of polls released yesterday seem to show that this is probably their best issue (along with Gitmo, which is a tad bit more controversial), and a much stronger one than we thought.

These numbers can all be found on Polling Report (most of it here: http://www.pollingreport.com/budget.htm) and don't require much commentary.

• 50% of Americans say they will base their 2010 congressional vote on the candidates feelings concerning Economic Stimulus(stimuli?). The next biggest issue is 23%.
• 54% of Americans are either not very or not at all confident that the last stimulus will ever work. 52% do not even think it will produce jobs.
• Depending on the poll, either a 52%-36% or 61%-33% margin opposes a new stimulus.
• 71% would prefer a slower recovery to an increased deficit.
• And, to those who do not believe people will vote based on deficit issues, 67% (correctly)believe that the deficit affects their everyday lives and finances.
• Finally, President Obama has fallen, for a few polls in a row now, to the point where the country is virtually split right down the middle (with a few undecided) on whether they approve of his economic policies.

New Health Care Polls Show Republicans Winning/Losing

In the last couple of days, CBS News and USA Today/Gallup have released fairly comprehensive polls concering the health care debate currently raging in Congress. They provide a pretty good playbook on how Republicans should approach this topic, where we are currently succeeding, and where we need to do better.

1. More than 3/4 of Americans (at the low end) consider it extremely or very important that health care reform allow them to keep their current plan, allow them to make critical medical decisions with their doctors (aka NO RATIONING), and control costs. These are the focal points of all the various Republican proposals, and we should emphasize this. (An additional note: Controlling costs continue to big a larger priority for the public than expanding coverage by a 10+ point margin.)
2. People strongly support raising taxes on the rich and penalizing employers for not offering health care, while they oppose controlling Medicare costs, cutting the home mortgage interest deduction, or limiting the tax credit for employer-provided benefits. This does not mean that Republicans should change our views of where new revenue (if necessary at all) should come from; we need to explain ourselves better. Penalizing employers who don't offer health care will destroy jobs as small businesses go under while the economy slowly recovers, and any tax raises on the rich should be saved for general revenue to pay off the massive debt Bush and Obama have been building. Republicans need to explain how the mortgage and employer-based health care tax credits are extremely regressive and favor the rich, and how fixing medicare is the central necessity for any plan meant to control health costs.
3. A near-majority of Americans believe doctors are best suited to lead health care reform, while only 10% believe Republicans are so qualified. Since doctors and hospitals trend Republican by significant margins, we need to a) consult with them concerning which parts of our plans could be refined to improve its feasibility, and b) let the public know we are working with the medical professionals while the Democrats are working with 30-year Washington beauracrats.
4. Finally, majorities of Americans favor mandated health insurance and a public option. Again, we should not back down on these points. They contradict what the public says they want, as mandated health insurance leads to rapid cost inflation (see: Massachusetts), while a public option pushes other insurers out of the market and leads to rationing (see: Maine, most European countries.) Again, messaging is everything. Lets take advantage of the support we get from doctors and display which party is basing their proposals on empirical fact and which is basing theirs on strict party ideology.
   
   See the full numbers for yourself at: http://www.pollingreport.com/health.htm